India prepares for Super El Nino

India prepares for Super El Nino: fear drought in north, flood warning for Chennai

Meteorologists warn of a historic climate event to disrupt the 2026 monsoon, threatening agriculture and concrete centres with adverse severe weather

What is EL NIÑO SPÓN?

India is heading into the 2026 monsoon season under the shadow of an effective "peak-stage" El Niño. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has formally forecast that the monsoon rainfall in the Southwest is all likely to be 92% of the long-term average (LPA), placing it firmly within the "normal" category The warming of the Pacific Ocean is completely disrupting wind patterns

Which places in India are at risk of EL NIÑO?

The effects can be sharply distributed. The north, west and, more importantly, India faces the greatest risk of drought-like conditions. Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan have been identified as particularly prone, with significant rainfall deficits expected. In Madhya Pradesh, the major cities including Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior and Jabalpur have all chances to register during normal rains.

Conversely, the warming event is predicted to pump excessive moisture into the southern coastal areas. Chennai is on high alert for flash floods due to intensified northeast monsoon, while coastal Andhra Pradesh is predicted to see equal amounts of rain Areas like Ladakh and the Northeast are expected to escape major casualties

 A famous story

This pattern is a cruel repetition of history. Scientists draw direct parallels with the devastating floods in Chennai in 2015, which occurred sometime during a relatively strong El Nino phase and caused massive destruction and lack of lifestyle This despite mild heavy rainfall coupled with the city's drawn-out geography and drought to the north disaster-prone belts, the forecast raises the prospect of agricultural distress, crop failures and greater water shortages a threat to nearly 60% of Indian farmers who rely on monsoon rains

A silver lining?

But it's not all doom and gloom anymore. Climate models suggest that the positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) may also extend later within the season. This contradictory climate pattern has the potential to partially counteract the drying effects of El Nino by bringing in moisture from the Indian Ocean. The IMD notes that a lower normal snow shield within the northern hemisphere may also help reduce the monsoon deficit.

With the initiative right on India’s doorstep, neighbouring governments are being urged to speed up schemes from desilting vital waterways in Chennai to imposing water conservation measures on drought-prone states.